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to celebrate the return of football TiVo is offering 30-day free trials to the athletic the home of the world’s best for poor writing Sir Alex Ferguson once said the attack wins you games but defense wins you titles in the first Premier League season United won the title conceding nine fewer goals than the next best team defensively but having been outscored by Blackburn Rovers by one and Liverpool’s acquisitions of Virgil van Dyck and Alison have been credited with contributing hugely to their title win until last season’s Champions League tightening up a defensive unit that had often looked shaky so what Sir Alex Wright well looking at the Premier League since it began in 1992-93 not including the current season a few things are notable the team with the highest total of goals scored 117 of 27 titles the team with the lowest total of goals conceded 111 titles and the team with the best goal difference were 19 titles only six times that a team managed to top all three categories and they are generally considered all-time great league teams they were Manchester United in 2000 2001 Arsenal in 2003 for Chelsea in five six tied with Manchester United for goals scored United again in seven eight Manchester City in 2011-12 and in 2017 18 only three times has a side won the league and not been the best in any of these categories they were Arsenal in 97 98 Leicester City in 2015-16 and Chelsea in 2016-17 so the team with the best defensive record winning the title is a more recent phenomenon while it applied to that United 92-93 side it only happened another three times up to and including 2003 for but after that it happened a further seven times it’s also worth noting just how important goal differences of course it’s much better to be great at both ends as one would expect for example in 2014-15 chelsea won the title conceding only 32 goals with a goal difference of 41 the next best defensive team with Southampton who conceded only 33 times but they finished in seventh with the goal difference of 21 because they found scoring hard Omar Chaudhary from 21st club neatly sums it up if you’re a very good defensive team it means matches are lower scoring and therefore you are more vulnerable to dropping points in draws against weaker teams whereas if you’re an attacking team it’s easier to blow away weaker opponents and other studies have borne this out when the numbers game authors Chris Anderson and David Sally looked at data from the Premier League Serie La Liga and the Bundesliga they found that between 1991 and 2010 the best defense will pick up a championship 46 percent of the time the best attack meanwhile won the championship 51 percent of the time there was a variety among the league’s to the Bundesliga and serious or a greater number of seasons won by the best defence compared to the best attack while La Liga and the Premier League saw the reverse but in short while its marginal it’s better to have a good attack as the book points out the floor with just looking out per is that you don’t know how the team won points did they attack or look to keep it tight so they investigated they conducted analysis of Premier League matches between 2001 to and 2010-11 to compare the value of goals scored and goals conceded and what’s noticeable from their work is that when looking at avoiding defeat rather than winning the goals club’s didn’t concede were each 33% more valuable than the goals that they scored this means that when looking at winning scoring goals and not conceding goals are of roughly the same value when considering how not to drop points by losing it’s more valuable to focus on defense and it’s very hard to work out a value in points or wins or avoiding losses that each player brings this is because football is a hugely complicated game where so many thousands of actions some measurable and some not contribute to a performance however we can look at Liverpool’s goalkeeping situation and infer a few things comparing the last three seasons it’s very clear that even if Allison cannot be credited specifically with winning games or not losing the he is a huge improvement on what’s gone before not only does he have the lowest goals conceded per 90th any of Liverpool’s five keepers in the last three seasons which is of course partly a team effort he’s also got the best save percentage and crucially when considering his post shot expected goals plus or minus which is the post shot expected goals value minus actual goals conceded he’s exceptional in simple terms in the last two seasons allison has prevented 8.

6 goals that based on their post show XG would be expected on average to go in Mineola and Andrian on the other hand let in more goals than on average one would expect from the shots expected goals value here at least Allison’s value is clear and as we’ve seen from Anderson and Sally’s work when avoiding defeat these goals prevented were worth a third more than goals scored at the other end so in Liverpool’s case upgrading their defense and goalkeeper will certainly have helped them avoid defeat and this put them in the hunt for the title because upgrading a pretty poor defense in making it world-beating then provided a platform for their superb attack not only could they now achieve victory in games they could also avoid losing them and that balance really is what wins titles essential reading for Liverpool supporters the story of how Jurgen Klopp walked into an field and turned Liverpool into title winners James Pierce and Simon Hughes of the athletic bring you the complete account and to check it out you can get a 30-day free trial get access to James and Simon’s writing insight behind the scenes information and even their fantastic podcast the read agenda that Plus every other Premier League club and even ten other sports all covered with the same attention to detail so visit the athletic comm /tphoe Football to sign up and thanks for watching today’s video [Music].

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